

State Equity Matters - 22 February 2010
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By Michael Heffernan
A blockbuster week for company reports; an increasingly likely satisfactory resolution to the Greece debt crisis; better than expected American economic data; and a very pleasantly surprising first quarter trading update from Westpac, propelled the market to a three week high last week.
But in brief the market's performance so far this year has been lack lustre. The index is actually 4.8% lower than at the end of last year, and at its current level of 4635 was also achieved in September last year on its way up!
Considering the quality of most of the reports, which have been made over the past two weeks, this market environment in many instances, represents attractive opportunities for medium term investors.
At the broader level of the economy, the recently released minutes of the February meeting of the Reserve Bank Board underlined the fact that the Bank will move interest rates upwards this year, but on a very gradual basis i.e. not "at every meeting", as the Bank commented.
When one takes account of the Bank's projections for inflation at an expected annual increase at about 2.5% at the end of this year and economic growth at around 3.25%, it would appear that by December, official interest rates will be 4.5-5%. In other words a rise over the next nine months, of 0.75%.
Also last week, figures on lending finance for December reinforced the easing pattern of this data over recent months and is consistent an economy which is moving ahead, but only gradually.
On the corporate front, a particularly significant aspect of this reporting season is that companies' share prices have reacted positively, not just because the profits have been good, (as they mostly have been) but also because the companies results have exceeded analysts prior expectations.
In certain cases even companies which reported flat results or made losses, (but not as bad as anticipated), saw significant increases in their share price as a result- Such results included Onesteel, ASX, Ansell and Brambles.
Clearly this sort of share market reaction has a limited life. In the end it is company profitability on a sustained basis which will provide the engine for share price growth.
But starting the week on a very positive note, was the trading update by Westpac, which took the market almost completely by surprise.. Specifically the bank advised that in the December quarter, cash earnings (the main measure of banks' profits) was approximately $1.6 billion substantially more than the market had been anticipating. Just as significantly the bank also said the performance "provides clear signs of an improved environment" The net result was that this announcement saw a sharp rise of 6% in Westpac's share price on Tuesday, which had "knock-on" boosts to the other three major banks share prices as well.
Overall many of the results last week were what can only be described as "stand out". Some of these have been CSL, The Reject Shop, Monadelphous, Seek, Wotif.com, Supercheap Auto, Retail Food Group, and to a lesser degree Transurban.
Other results that exceeded expectations but were not dramatic in themselves came from Wesfarmers, Coca Cola and AXA. Companies whose reports disappointed were Qantas, Fosters, Crane Group, and Fleetwood.
Looking ahead on the corporate scene for next week which is the last week of the current reporting season, we will see on Monday Fairfax and United Group.
On Tuesday Amcor, GBT, IRESS Technology, Oil Search, Sonic Healthcare and Aristocrat Leisure.
On Thursday Auscenco, Asiano, Centro, the MAC Services, Suncorp Metway, Transfield Services and Woodside Petroleum.
Closing out the week on Friday we will have Downer EDI, Centro Properties Group, Flight Centre, Insurance Australia Group, Lend Lease, Macquarie Airports, Origin, Perpetual, REA Group (former realestate.com), Toll Holdings, Virgin Blue, Boart Longyear, Seven Network, Tatts Group, Westfield Group, AGL Energy, Harvey Norman, QBE Insurance, Tox Free Solutions, Woolworths and Oz Minerals.
On the economic front we will see a key indicator of demand in the form of motor vehicle sales on Monday, and the wage cost index on Wednesday. It would not surprise to see motor vehicle sales ease back in the month of January given the fact that the investment allowance taxation benefit for motor vehicle purchases was terminated at the end of December.
In the United States there are a few very important indicators due out. New home sales and durable goods orders together with initial jobless figures are scheduled on Thursday, Gross Domestic Product figures for the December quarter will be out on Friday together with the Chicago Purchasing Managers Report.
It should be noted that the "advance" figures of GDP for the December quarter which were released last month showed an annual rate of growth of 5.7%. It can be expected that this week's revised figures for the same quarter will probably show an increase of slightly less than that.
In conclusion this reporting season has been unequivocally positive and considerably better than many had anticipated.
When this reporting season is over there will be few immediate catalysts for share price movements until we get the major banks reports i.e. ANZ, Westpac and National in about two months time.
However, with economic indicators being increasingly positive both here and overseas the fundamentals for share market improvement this year remain intact.
Michael Heffernan, Senior Private Client Adviser and Strategist, is a representative of Austock Securities Ltd AFSL 244410.